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Hurricane Erin Tracker: Forecast Sees Huge Storm Moving Closer to Northeast Coast

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NOAA hurricane erin path

NOAA

Hurricane Erin is moving closer to the Eastern Seaboard, with coastal towns in Maryland, New Jersey, and New York preparing for impact.

Dangerous rip currents and flood risks have already triggered evacuation orders and states of emergency in two North Carolina counties. The latest forecasts have also nudged Erin’s predicted track farther west, raising the likelihood of land impacts, according to the National Weather Service. Though the eye of the storm still remains well out to sea, the enormous size of Erin explains the impact.

“We see some comments in the community: ‘How come we’re being impacted at the coast? The storm is well out to sea,'” Erik Heden, the warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Morehead City, NC, said in an update. “That’s correct—with the center of the storm. But keep in mind, it’s hundreds of miles across.”

According to AccuWeather, Erin could re-strengthen by Wednesday as it tracks just off the U.S. coast. While the storm’s eye is expected to remain offshore, significant effects are still likely along much of the East Coast.

In Maryland, the popular tourist destination of Ocean City has closed public access to the water as a precaution, the Ocean City Police Department said. In New York, all beaches within the Town of Hempstead will close Thursday as the storm continues its northward movement.

So far, no beaches along the Jersey Shore have been slated to close. However, Gov. Phil Murphy addressed the storm during a Tuesday morning press conference, underscoring the dangers posed by its indirect impacts.

“We are worried in a big way about human nature and complacency,” Murphy said. “We’ve had a very tough rip current season, particularly over the past several weeks.”

The storm elevated to hurricane status Friday, slamming into the Caribbean as a Category 3 hurricane over the weekend. It knocked out power to about 147,000 customers in Puerto Rico, according to Luma Energy, and reached Category 5 status Sunday. 

It has since been downgraded to a Category 2 storm, on track to move north between Bermuda and the East Coast of the U.S. by tomorrow.

NOAA Hurricane Erin
The map shared by NOAA shows the earliest reasonable arrival time of tropical storm force wings in the next four days.

(NOAA)

The 2025 hurricane season is expected to be ‘above normal’

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its 2025 hurricane season outlook—originally released in May—reaffirming its forecast for “above-normal” Atlantic hurricane activity before the season ends Nov. 30.

NOAA experts say the likelihood of a more intense-than-typical hurricane season is 50%, down from 60% in May.

The agency expects 13 to 18 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph, of which five to nine could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Of those, two to five could escalate to major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or more.

“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm said in a NOAA report.

A 2025 hurricane risk report by Cotality, a data-driven tech company, found more than 33.1 million residential properties—with a combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) of $11.7 trillion—are at moderate or greater risk of sustaining damage from hurricane-force winds.

Florida, Texas, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts are among the states with the highest number of homes and RCV at moderate or greater risk of hurricane wind damage.

How to prepare for a hurricane before it makes landfall

The best defense is a good offense. While there’s only so much you can do to protect your home, there’s enough to give you and your family peace of mind during hurricane season.

First, get the essentials in order.

“Ideally, you’d get hurricane-ready in the months leading up to the start of hurricane season on June 1st. This is when you should gather water, nonperishable foods, and a go-bag of important documents and other necessities, like cash and prescription medications,” says Rachael Gauthier, meteorologist at the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety in Charlotte, NC.

When a storm is forecast or approaching, insurance companies typically issue “binding restrictions,” meaning they stop issuing new policies or increasing coverage until the threat has passed. That’s why it’s important to have coverage locked in well before the season starts.

If you live in a hurricane zone, getting ideal coverage can be challenging. It’s also wise to keep emergency savings on hand to cover damages not insured.

“An emergency savings buffer is vital to being ready to cover unexpected costs,” advises Melanie Musson, an insurance expert at Clearsurance.com. “If a hurricane rips off your siding and you’re not covered by home insurance, your emergency savings can help you recover financially.”

Before disaster strikes, create an evacuation route and designate meeting places inside and outside your home.

“Everyone should have an evacuation plan, since there’s always a risk you’ll have to leave your home in a hurry,” says Musson.

Once a hurricane is confirmed to be headed your way, focus on fortifying your home and ensuring your family’s safety.

“A few days before incoming storms, it’s a good idea to board up windows, bring in outside items that could become flying projectiles in high winds, and stock up on extra fuel for generators and/or vehicles,” says Gauthier.


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