Hurricane Season Forecast Update: Prepare Now for ‘Above Normal’ Activity in Coastal Cities

With hurricane season entering its second half, communities along the Atlantic coast are being urged to “prepare now” for an above-average number of storms.  

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday updated its 2025 hurricane season outlook originally released in May, reaffirming its forecast for “above-normal” hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean before the season ends Nov. 30.

NOAA experts also say that the likelihood of a hurricane season that is more intense than typical is 50%, down from the 60% they predicted in May.

The agency expects to see 13 to 18 named storms, with winds of at least 39 mph, of which five to nine could turn into hurricanes packing winds of 74 mph and higher. 

Of those, NOAA forecasters say two to five could escalate to major hurricanes with winds 111 mph or more. 

Those latest numbers should offer a measure of hope to people living in coastal states, considering that in its preseason forecast, NOAA warned of up to 19 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes, including at least three major ones. 

NOAA issues a warning

In a typical season, there are 14 named storms, among them seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. 

“As we enter the second half of the season, this updated hurricane outlook serves as a call to action to prepare now, in advance, rather than delay until a warning is issued,” Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm said in a press release.

The adjusted ranges apply to the entire season running from June 1 through Nov. 30, and they include the four named tropical storms that have already formed: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter. 

The first tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. this year was Chantal. The powerful cyclone was accompanied by winds of around 60 mph and dumped up to 12 inches of rain in parts of the Carolinas, triggering deadly flooding over the July 4 holiday weekend.

At least six people died as a result of the storm, and an estimated $42 million in damage to homes, businesses, and infrastructure was left in Chantal’s wake, according to the office of North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein, as reported by the Associated Press this week.  

With four months left to the hurricane season, NOAA is urging the public to stay alert. 

“No two storms are alike,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “Every storm presents unique, life-threatening hazards that can impact people in both coastal and inland communities. Have a plan in place, and know the actions you should take before, during, and after the wide range of hazards that the hurricane season can bring.”  

There are several reasons for what promises to be a busy storm season in the Atlantic, including warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures and an active West African Monsoon. 

“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

Lessons from the past

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was highly destructive, featuring 11 named tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. 

In September 2024, Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region as a Category 4 storm, resulting in over 250 deaths across multiple states and making Helene the deadliest hurricane in the mainland U.S. since Katrina in 2005. 

Helene also inflicted an estimated $78.7 billion in damage, according to the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, elevating it to the seventh costliest storm in U.S. history. 

Less than two weeks later, Hurricane Milton, the year’s strongest cyclone, smashed into Siesta Key, FL, as a Category 3.

Although Milton had been downgraded from its peak Category 5 by the time it made landfall on Oct. 9, it still caused more than 40 fatalities and inflicted an estimated $34 billion in damage across Central Florida.

Which states are most at risk?

While NOAA’s updated 2025 hurricane season outlook does not specify which states face the greatest cyclone risk, a recent report from Cotality, a data-driven tech company, sheds a new light on the dangers and costs associated with hurricanes.

The analysis found that Florida, Texas, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts have the most homes with moderate or greater risk of hurricane wind damage and the highest associated reconstruction cost value.

Florida has by far the most residential properties facing an elevated risk of sustained wind damage, topping 8 million, and an RCV of $2.3 billion. 

Texas comes in second, with more than 4.7 million at-risk homes and RCV of over $1.4 billion. 

While the Northeast is not known as a major hurricane target, New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts rank fourth, fifth, and sixth for the number of homes facing higher-than-average risk and reconstruction costs. 

In fact, according to a new report from AccuWeather, the Northeast is climatologically overdue for a hurricane, considering that one typically strikes the region every 15 to 20 years, and it has now been more than three decades since Hurricane Bob made landfall in Rhode Island in 1991.  

Across 20 states and the District of Columbia, Cotality determined that more than 33 million homes with a combined RCV of $11.7 trillion face a moderate risk or higher from hurricane-force winds.