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The Northeast region is climatologically overdue for a hurricane, according to a new report from AccuWeather.
Indeed, it’s been more than 30 years since the area has had a hurricane—but don’t let that fool you into thinking these states are safe from storms. AccuWeather’s article says: “This region isn’t immune; it’s overdue.”
It’s noted that, on average, a hurricane strikes the Northeast every 15 to 20 years. But it’s been more than 30 years since Hurricane Bob, a Category 3, hit Rhode Island on Aug. 19, 1991. (It’s worth pointing out that Sandy was more recent, in 2012, but this storm was technically classified as “post-tropical.”)
So, does that mean another hurricane is on its way? Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, says hurricanes are difficult to predict—but it’s been a long time coming and the number might be up.
The Northeast is overdue—and a modern-day storm could be catastrophic
It’s true that a hurricane is expected in the Northeast every 15 to 20 years, and a major hurricane is estimated for every 60 to 70 years, but DaSilva says weather isn’t clockwork.
He explains that, in meteorology, whenever we hear a return interval, like “once-in-70-year hurricane,” it translates to the percentage chance in any given year. So, experts say the odds of a “once-in-20-year” hurricane hitting the Northeast are about 5% every year. The chance of a major hurricane disrupting the region are about 1.5% every year.
“Basically, it just comes down to the percentage chance every year. So yes, we’re technically overdue because it’s been so long, but the chances are not any higher than they were 15 years ago,” says DaSilva.
He adds that certain factors can influence the level of risk from year to year. For example, if meteorologists forecast an above-average number of named storms, the likelihood of impact increases. Fortunately, for 2025, DaSilva says the prediction is 13 to 18 named storms—not an unusually high number.
But warming ocean temperatures can also impact the size of storms. DaSilva explains that with climate change and ocean water warming, storms may be “a little bit stronger” than they might have been in centuries past.
And whenever that hurricane does hit, damage could be major.
Hurricane Bob caused more than $1.5 billion in damage, which translates to $3.46 billion today. A 1938 hurricane deemed The Long Island Express/The Great New England Hurricane caused $250 million to $450 million in damage back then. Today?
“If the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 were to happen today, AccuWeather experts estimate the total damage and economic loss would reach $440 billion,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter explains. “To put that staggering price tag into perspective, AccuWeather estimates the total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Katrina was $320 billion, adjusted for inflation today.”
And while it’s hard to predict where, and how hard, a hurricane will strike, DaSilva says we’re likely to see more-than-average damage after the next big one.
He explains that more people live on the coast now than they did in the 1990s and the 1930s when previous hurricanes hit. And after decades of erosion, more homes are at risk of falling into the ocean.
Insurance coverage may be limited or unavailable—just as risk grows
So, what can homeowners do? Insurance can help, but coverage can be an issue in hurricane-prone cities.
In states vulnerable to natural disasters like hurricanes or wildfires, millions of Americans have been facing an insurance crisis. Major insurers are charging much more for policies, if not pulling out or refusing to renew policies, leaving many Americans scrambling for coverage.
Alex Burgess, a leader of product and industry strategy at Hi Marley, a communication platform for property and casualty insurance, says it can be harder to get home insurance in hurricane-prone areas like the Northeast. In fact, he says “some insurance carriers have exited entire states or regions due to storm or wildfire risk because of challenges with maintaining profitability.”
Max Dugan-Knight, a climate data scientist at Deep Sky Research, agrees that home insurance is getting much more expensive and harder to access in high-risk areas. But if you can find a carrier, he says to make sure your policy covers the most common and destructive hazards in your area.
“Some home insurance policies explicitly exclude flooding, wind, or wildfire damage. This may mean you need to purchase that separately or talk to your provider about adding it to your policy. Incomplete coverage can be devastating if you only discover it after a disaster strikes,” says Dugan-Knight.
He says insurance can be expensive but recommends coverage for mold remediation, water damage, code upgrade exclusions, and delayed mitigation denials.
How to prepare your home—and your exit strategy
Gabrielle Ruggeri, a real estate agent in Martinsville, NJ, says her area has recently been hit with torrential rains and storm damage. She says storm preparation is important to her and those in her community.
Ruggeri says the most important thing is to make sure your family has a solid emergency plan. “Know your evacuation routes, have a meeting place that’s easy for everyone to remember, and ensure your loved ones are on the same page when things get hectic,” she says. “Don’t forget to subscribe to Nixle alerts or your local town alerts from police and officials for up-to-date information.”
After that, she says that families should stock up on the basics. “The rule of thumb is 2 gallons of water per person per day. Keep extra dry pantry staples, canned goods, and snacks that can be eaten without refrigeration,” she advises, adding that it’s important not to forget prescription medications, baby food, and pet supplies if needed.
She also recommends investing in emergency tech, such as wind-up or solar-powered chargers for your devices and radios, to stay connected. “Many homeowners are adding backup generators, especially those with automatic hookups to natural gas,” she says. “This not only helps during power outages but adds value to your home in the long run.”
Jonathan Carcone, principal of 4 Brothers Buy Houses, based in Washington, DC, says it’s also important to prepare your house before a hurricane or storm.
Even if you don’t have a lot of time, he says homeowners can take a few minutes to secure or store loose items. “Strong winds from a storm can turn even small objects into dangerous projectiles,” Carone says. “Homeowners should secure or bring indoors any loose items in their yards, such as patio furniture, potted plants, and trash cans.”
If you have more time, he says, reinforcing doors and windows can also help avoid damage.
“Consider installing shutters or reinforcing windows with storm-resistant materials,” Carcone says. “You can also reinforce doors by adding sturdy deadbolts and using hurricane shutters.”
Carcone also notes that homeowners should check their roof. Loose or damaged shingles can easily fly off during a storm, leaving your home vulnerable to water damage. He recommends inspecting your roof regularly and repairing any damage ahead of time.
Do you have any trees on your property? Tree trimming can also help avoid damage.
“Weak or dead tree branches can snap off easily during a storm and cause damage to your home or neighboring properties,” Carcone says.