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Homeowners are left scrambling to get their short-term rentals ready for a spate of last-minute bookings, according to a new report.
AirDNA, which compiles and analyzes Vrbo and Airbnb data, says that bookings within five days of check-in have spiked dramatically in 2025, peaking in January with a 31% share of all bookings, up from approximately 16% only three years ago.
“People are getting more comfortable with booking short-term rentals and figuring out the pricing mechanics,” explains Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com®. “Many STRs offer last-minute discounts to fill inventory, so that the closer you get to a stay, the less expensive it is.
“It’s a bit of a gamble on whether you’ll find the place you want for the dates you want, but if you pull it off, it can make a trip very affordable. They do this (behaving the opposite of hotels) because most STR owners only have one ‘unit’ they can sell for a given night, where a hotel doesn’t really care if it’s only 90% full.”
(Realtor.com)
Bookers are clearly ready to take the gamble by waiting until the last minute.
In 2022, approximately 16% of bookings were made with such a short window of time before check-in. However, in 2025, that rose to a median of 26.2%, with 13% of that made same-day.
Share of bookings made within five days of check-in, according to AirDNA, were as follows:
- 2022: 16.67%
- 2023: 18.87%
- 2024: 22.83%
- 2025: 26.28%
(AirDNA)
“U.S. lead times recovered post-pandemic, but we have observed a trend of declines since then,” Bram Gallagher, AirDNA’s director of economics and forecasting, tells Realtor.com. “Median lead times are about five days shorter on average today (25 days for the 12 months ending June 2025) compared to the 2023 average (30 days).
“Increases to STR supply and guest familiarity with the product have given vacationers more confidence to defer their travel plans,” he explains. “Happily, there haven’t been widespread negative effects from tariffs yet, so it appears that most of the time, vacationers end up making those plans.”
And the spontaneous bookings aren’t just for certain metros—AirDNA says that all location types have seen a drop in median lead time, with urban markets experiencing the sharpest drop at -8.4% year over year, while coastal resort markets saw a more modest decline of 3.5% year over year.
Of the urban markets, large cities such as New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago saw the booking lead time decrease the most, at -8%. Other markets such as mountains/lake, large city/suburban, midsize city, and small city/rural all tied for 6% drops.
Coastal markets—which generally fill up the fastest as summer approaches and primarily attract leisure travelers as opposed to professional travelers—saw the smallest drop, at 4%.
(Realtor.com)
The report reveals that one of the largest markets, New York City, which saw short-term rentals effectively banned in 2023—rebounded in bookings for 2025: “[The ban] created a one-time shock to supply, significantly reducing available listings in 2024. With the impact of that regulation now absorbed, supply is beginning to grow again and is expected to accelerate through 2026.”
Meanwhile, the share of bookings made well in advance—both in the middle and long lead time categories—has declined, indicating a broader trend toward shorter planning windows, says the report.
Those who like to plan far in advance with six months or more out are only 6% of bookings. Two weeks or less lead time is still the most common, at 42% of bookings.
(Realtor.com)
Why all the short-term bookings?
“While long-term demand trends are shaped by broader economic factors like income and employment, short-term demand (within the next three months) can be influenced by more unpredictable forces,” explains the report. “These include shifting traveler preferences or the confluence of local events.”
Additionally, many listings have opened their calendars earlier this year, increasing the number of available nights compared with last year, which allowed travelers to book much closer to their intended stay dates.
Landlords are noticing the shift.
“We’ve definitely noticed the surge in last-minute bookings this year,” Alex Dodge, property manager at Camelot Homes, which oversees the Skyeview, a four-bedroom modern retreat perched atop Camelback Mountain in Arizona, tells Realtor.com. “Guests are booking closer to check-in than ever before, and we’ve even had quite a few same-day reservations. Some are locals here in the Phoenix area looking for a getaway close to home, and others are travelers from out of town, often deciding midweek that they want a weekend away.
“My take is that people were a little cautious earlier in the year with spending, but now they’re more willing to book trips even if it’s spontaneous.”
(The Skyeview)
He notes that summer is usually slower in Phoenix due to the heat, but that June and July ended up performing well, almost entirely because of last-minute bookings.
“A lot of our guests mention that they’re working remotely during their stay, but wanted a change of scenery while doing so,” he says. “That desire to feel like they’re on vacation, even while working, is a big reason they book a place like Skyeview. I think the flexibility that comes with remote work over the last few years is allowing people to travel more spontaneously, without having to fully disconnect from their jobs.”