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While uncertainty in the Florida real estate market is on the rise, home prices are starting to fall.
Though overall list rates remain about 50% higher than pre-pandemic levels, the numbers for April 2025 showed a significant downward trend, with the median home price statewide coming in at $412,734. In May, there was a slightly smaller decrease, at -2.2% year over year, but prices are still trending lower with a median list price in Florida of $439,999.
According to Brad O’Connor, Florida Realtors® chief economist, that 4% drop is the largest year-over-year percentage decline observed for Florida single-family home prices going all the way back to October 2011—so it’s worthy of attention.
“Inventory is always one of the first places to look whenever you consider how housing supply and demand are interacting and what that means for home prices—whether they’re likely to climb or drop,” says Anthony Smith, senior economist at Realtor.com®.
“Florida had a 34% increase in active listings compared to last year, which means that there are more home sellers now and more options for potential homebuyers to choose from.”
However, Smith says that home sellers might not be the biggest drivers of the recent increase in inventory, because newly listed properties were actually flat or lower compared with one year ago.
“In Florida, it’s a buyer’s market and resales are competing with a lot of new-construction or newer homes in certain price points, which makes it harder,” says Cara Ameer, an agent with Coldwell Banker who is licensed in California and Florida. “Builders are able to offer aggressive incentives—such as buying down the interest rate, or offering money off the price or toward closing costs—to make buying the home more affordable.”
Other reasons for the Florida home price decline include hyperinflation during the COVID-19 pandemic, and increased home insurance costs across the state.
With all that in mind, the Realtor.com economics team analyzed which metro markets in Florida have shown the steepest year-over-year home price declines recently. Read on to see where prices might be at risk of falling even more in the coming months.
Cape Coral–Fort Myers, FL
(Realtor.com )
- Median list price in May 2025: $429,900
- Median list price decline year over year: -6.7%
- Year-over-year inventory/property count increase: 36.1%
Of the top five metro areas facing a decrease in median list prices, the Cape Coral–Fort Myers area had the steepest drop, going down 6.7% year over year in May 2025. In addition to declining home prices and increased inventory, the Cape Coral–Fort Myers area also had one of the biggest upticks of median days on the market, with a 22% year-over-year increase, suggesting that demand isn’t holding up.
In fact, median days on the market are increasing statewide, which Smith says signal “a bit of sluggishness from buyers who are less willing to bite on what’s for sale.”
Naples-Marco Island, FL
(Realtor.com )
- Median list price in May 2025: $749,000
- Median list price decline year over year: -6.3%
- Year-over-year inventory/property count increase: 33.9%
The upscale Naples-Marco Island metro area isn’t immune to dipping home prices, with median list prices decreasing 6.3% in May. Of the top five metros on this list, the area also had the sharpest decline in new-home listings for sale, dropping 19% last month. Nonetheless, overall inventory in the area is still up, at 33.9%, indicating that there are indeed homes for sale—for those who have the financial liquidity to buy. Unfortunately, O’Connor says that “affordability continues to be the No. 1 issue impeding sales growth around the state.”
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
(Realtor.com)
- Median list price in May 2025: $510,000
- Median list price decline year over year: -5.5%
- Year-over-year inventory/property count increase: 38.7%
These trendy beach areas never go out of style, but the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro area is looking a bit more affordable right now. With median home prices dipping to $510,000—a 5.5% decrease year over year—and active listings at 38.7%, buyers in the market might have more luck.
“Miami also had a price-reduced share of 19.7%, showing a significant portion of the inventory that had a price cut within the region,” says Smith.
Punta Gorda, FL
(Realtor.com)
- Median list price in May 2025: $389,900
- Median list price decline year over year: -5.6%
- Year-over-year inventory/property count increase: 25%
The Punta Gorda metro area currently has the most affordable median home price of the top five metro areas in Florida on the downward slide. Coming in at $389,000, this region—which includes all of Charlotte County—is seeing home prices down 5.6% year over year. Also interesting is the increase in inventory, which is up 25% from last year in the at-large metro area of Punta Gorda indicating a growing supply for home shoppers looking to buy.
Panama City–Panama City Beach, FL
(Realtor.com)
- Median list price in May 2025: $425,000
- Median list price decline year over year: -5.4%
- Year-over-year inventory/property count increase: 18.5%
With only -1.03% new listings on the market in May, the Panama City–Panama City Beach, FL, area might be a bit more competitive when it comes to available inventory (which increased 18.5% year over year). However, that didn’t stop home prices from decelerating 5.4% year over year, with a median list price of $425,000 in May. The good news for sellers is that homes are not lingering as long here, with median days on the market up only 6.1% year over year, which is half the statewide median of 12.2%.
Additional Florida markets to watch
Beyond these five top markets, the Realtor.com econ team flagged a few other areas to watch for price dips.
“Another standout metro was Orlando, which had an elevated annual increase of 38.8% for active listings,” says Smith.
With a median list price of $429,900 and a 25% increase in median days on the market year over year, even though last month’s home list prices in the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL, metro area were only down 2.3% year over year, those numbers could definitely indicate future decreases are on the way.
Also, are retirees tiring of The Villages? Though new listings were down 9.6% last month in the Wildwood-The Villages metro area, overall active listings were at a whopping 41.1% in May, according to Smith. Plus, homes in that metro area are staying on the market 40% longer. And when inventory markers go up, prices are prone to go down.